" In order to understand the socio-economic impact of ICT in the New European Member
States and the Candidate Countries,1 the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
(IPTS) launched a number of studies as part of a project on ‘Foresight on Information Society
Technologies in an Enlarged Europe’ (FISTE).2
Written during the second half of 2004 for debate at the 11th Economic Forum in Krynica,
Poland, this report is one of three contributions to the FISTE project which aim to document
and identify research and policy issues to support the achievement of the Lisbon Objectives.
These issues result from the following three major challenges (identified in earlier research by
IPTS3) that will influence the development of the Information Society in Europe during the
present decade:
1. Changing competitive pressure: Innovation and the economic use of ICT.
2. Growing social divides: the role of ICT in the social/digital mismatch.
3. Emerging growth/demography squeeze: the tertiary transition in education.
This report by EMPIRICA mbH (Bonn, Germany) focuses on the second challenge: the
social/digital mismatch and the role of ICT."

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Foreword ................................................................................................................... 3
Preface ...................................................................................................................... 5
1. Rationale ............................................................................................................ 9
2. Social Divides: Challenged cohesion in the New Member States............... 11
2.1 Bits and pieces of a definition .................................................................................. 11
2.2 Income inequality and poverty................................................................................. 12
2.3 Employment, unemployment and poverty ............................................................... 13
2.4 Other challenges.......................................................................................................15
2.5 Conclusion................................................................................................................ 16
3. Digital divides: ICT adoption in the New Member States............................. 17
3.1 ICT adoption and GDP............................................................................................. 18
3.2 ICT adoption and individual profiles ....................................................................... 20
3.3 ICT skills and individual profiles............................................................................. 23
3.4 Conclusion................................................................................................................ 25
4. Social divides: Can ICT help? ........................................................................ 27
4.1 Internet use and employability: some empirical evidence from CEEC ................... 28
4.2 Conclusion................................................................................................................ 31
5. National social and digital divides: Match or mismatch? ............................ 33
5.1 Insights in Estonia: Unemployment and ICT use..................................................... 33
5.2 Insights in Poland: Unemployment and ICT use ..................................................... 35
5.3 Insights in Hungary: Educational attainments and ICT use..................................... 36
5.4 Insights in Slovenia: Aged population and ICT use................................................. 38
6. Conclusions..................................................................................................... 41
References .............................................................................................................. 43
Annex: Logistic regression analysis of unemployment...................................... 45